走出衰退:在经济低迷时期，首席财务官保持财务弹性的关键

If you sit in the CFO’s seat, you know that managing change is a constant – but effectively managing through difficult changes can lead you to greater success.

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Internal and external stakeholders look to CFOs to capably navigate companies through major business events, meaning that every crisis can be an opportunity for you as a strategic CFO. The last big event was the COVID-19 pandemic; you probably experienced challenges at the outset in 2020 but you were able to maneuver through that storm. Now there’s the prediction of a recession later this year or early in 2023 because economic growth has slowed amid rising interest rates and 41-year-high rates of inflation, all while COVID-19 variants continue to lurk in the background.

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The Harvard Business Review found that the most resilient companies during the 2008 economic crisis geared up for the recession earlier than their competitors. Even if they lost revenue during that downturn, the resilient ones had higher EBITDA margin because they reduced operating costs earlier in the recession cycle. The resilient companies were in a stronger financial position than others in their industry because they built flexibility into their investment planning and operations and were able to increase earnings. When that recession was at its worst, the resilient ones were able to reduce their debt more than others, using funds from divesting businesses and certain assets. The resilient ones had more cash that was then used to acquire assets from their competitors that had to sell assets when the overall economy improved.

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There have been 12 recessions since World War II according to the National Bureau of Economic Research and a recession can last between two and 18 months. Not all businesses are affected to the same extent as others in a recession. Industries that are recession-resistant include healthcare, food, education, household goods, and utilities. No matter where your business lands, you’ll find these key steps to help minimize the impact of a recession and come out stronger on the other side.

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Cash flow/liquidity

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Understanding your company’s cash flow and liquidity positions is always important, but it is even more so when heading into a recession. What is your working-capital requirement to ride out the recession? Should you look at increasing your line of credit and access to other funding options in anticipation of increased cash needs? Working capital management is vitally important during a downturn.

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Assess your receivables and identify risky customers in your customer mix. Is your industry sensitive to economic cycles? For instance, if you’re in hospitality, you know that consumers pull back from entertainment and travel because they are concerned about job security. Knowing which customers pay slowly offers insights into their financial health and creditworthiness. You can improve collections by offering customers early payment discounts. You can also reach out to customers to understand their situations and prepare for potential rough points so that you maintain strong ongoing business relationships.

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Maintain optimal inventory to serve your customers and plan with your suppliers to ensure appropriate inventory levels. Holding too much inventory reduces your cash and doesn’t improve sales. Inventory can also deprecate or spoil, meaning that you have invested and lost. On the other hand, having too little inventory results in loss of sales and, maybe, customers. It’s always complicated but managing inventory at the correct level presents a greater challenge during a recession than during a normal economy.

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While you manage collection, it’s critical to control your cash outflow. Effective management of payables includes renegotiating with your vendors, which can include asking for extended payment terms or price concessions, or taking advantage of early pay discounts.

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Operating expenses

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Your company’s expenses should be carefully evaluated leading into and during a recession. Cost containment is necessary and should be clearly communicated to the entire company to align spend expectations. Discretionary spending, like non-critical travel and non-essential headcount, should be cut. Also, evaluate your overall workforce and their skills to ensure that they align with your business needs during the recession and beyond. Renegotiate with your vendors and examine services that your business needs to survive.

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Capital structure

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You’ve heard the saying that the best time to have capital is when you don’t need the money. Review your capital structure now to ensure that you have the flexibility to withstand a downturn, which could put pressure on your revenue and the ability to service debt. Do you have debt repayment due within the next 12-18 months? Will you be able to repay that debt with your current plans in place, or should you look into refinancing when capital markets are accommodating?

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Reevaluate your planned strategic initiatives, such as capital projects and acquisitions, and determine whether they should proceed or be delayed. Reexamine the non-strategic assets of the company that can be divested. Connect with your lenders to ensure that they know your strategy and have the capital available to support your strategy. Proactively evaluating your capital structure and forecast is paramount to managing successfully through a recession.

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Anaplan: The right technology for recession planning

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You need to make smart data-derived decisions – not decisions based on guesses. And you want complete and timely updates on data and metrics, which are required more frequently during a recession. Intelligence about cash flow, operating expenses, capital structure, supply chain, sales performance, and workforce let you and your team collaborate and make the right decisions at the right time.

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Your planning technology should enable you to view data, gain insights, and make forecasts as frequently as you want in line with the fluidity of business. You should be able to perform scenario analysis whenever you need it. You should be able to generate management reports instantaneously to present to executives and the board so can you get buy-in on actionable steps to achieve business results.

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Do you have the right technology to make faster, informed decisions to drive your business objectives? Do you have the right tech to be as agile as you need to be in a recessionary environment?

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The right technology can help define the winners in uncertain times. Anaplan can be implemented in weeks, not months, and allows you to fearlessly steer your business during normal and turbulent times.

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如果你坐在首席财务官的位置上，你知道管理变化是一个持续的过程——但有效地管理困难的变化可以让你获得更大的成功。

内部和外部利益相关者都希望首席财务官有能力带领公司度过重大商业事件，这意味着每一次危机都可能是你作为一名战略首席财务官的机会。上一个重大事件是COVID-19大流行;你可能在2020年一开始就经历了挑战，但你能够渡过这场风暴。现在，人们预测今年晚些时候或2023年初将出现经济衰退，因为在利率上升和41年来最高的通货膨胀率的背景下，经济增长已经放缓，而COVID-19变体继续潜伏在背景中。

《哈佛商业评论》(Harvard Business Review)发现，在2008年经济危机期间，最具弹性的公司比竞争对手更早做好了应对衰退的准备。即使他们在经济衰退期间损失了收入，有弹性的公司也有更高的EBITDA利润率，因为他们在经济衰退周期中较早地降低了运营成本。这些具有弹性的公司的财务状况比业内其他公司更强，因为它们在投资计划和运营中建立了灵活性，并能够增加收益。当经济衰退最严重的时候，那些有弹性的企业能够利用剥离企业和某些资产的资金，比其他企业更能减少债务。有弹性的银行有更多的现金，然后用来从竞争对手那里收购资产，而竞争对手在整体经济好转时不得不出售资产。

根据美国国家经济研究局(National Bureau of Economic Research)的数据，自第二次世界大战以来，美国共经历了12次经济衰退，一次衰退可能持续2至18个月。在经济衰退中，并非所有企业都受到与其他企业相同程度的影响。抗衰退的行业包括医疗保健、食品、教育、家庭用品和公用事业。无论你的企业落在哪里，你都会发现这些关键步骤可以帮助你将经济衰退的影响降到最低，并在另一方面变得更强大。

现金流/流动性

了解公司的现金流和流动性状况总是很重要的，但在陷入衰退时更是如此。你需要多少营运资金才能安然度过经济衰退?你是否应该考虑增加你的信贷额度和获得其他融资选择，以预期增加的现金需求?在经济低迷时期，营运资金管理至关重要。

评估你的应收账款，并在你的客户组合中识别有风险的客户。你所在的行业对经济周期敏感吗?例如，如果你在酒店业工作，你就会知道消费者会因为担心工作保障而减少娱乐和旅游。了解哪些客户付款缓慢，有助于了解他们的财务状况和信用状况。你可以通过向客户提供提前付款折扣来改善收款。你也可以接触客户，了解他们的情况，为潜在的困难点做好准备，这样你就能保持强大的业务关系。

维持最佳库存以服务客户，并与供应商一起计划以确保适当的库存水平。持有过多的库存会减少你的现金，也不会提高销量。库存也可以折旧或损坏，这意味着你已经投资和损失。另一方面，库存过少会导致销售损失，可能还会损失客户。这总是很复杂，但在经济衰退期间，将库存管理在正确的水平上比在正常经济时期面临更大的挑战。

当你管理收款时，控制现金流出是至关重要的。应付账款的有效管理包括与供应商重新谈判，包括要求延长付款期限或价格优惠，或利用提前付款折扣。

营业费用

在经济衰退之前和期间，你应该仔细评估公司的开支。成本控制是必要的，应该清楚地传达给整个公司，以调整支出预期。可自由支配的开支，如非关键的旅行和非必要的人员编制，应该被削减。此外，评估你的整体员工队伍和他们的技能，以确保他们在经济衰退期间和以后都能满足你的业务需求。与你的供应商重新谈判，检查你的企业需要生存的服务。

资本结构

你听过这样的说法:拥有资本的最佳时机是你不需要钱的时候。现在就审查你的资本结构，以确保你有足够的灵活性来抵御经济低迷，这可能会给你的收入和偿债能力带来压力。你在未来12-18个月内是否有债务到期?你是否有能力在现有的计划下偿还这笔债务，或者当资本市场变得宽松时，你是否应该考虑再融资?

重新评估你计划好的战略举措，比如资本项目和收购，并决定它们是应该继续还是推迟。重新审视公司可以剥离的非战略性资产。与你的贷款人联系，以确保他们知道你的策略，并有可用的资金来支持你的策略。积极评估你的资本结构和预测对于成功度过经济衰退至关重要。

anplan:经济衰退规划的正确技术

您需要做出基于数据的明智决策，而不是基于猜测的决策。你希望数据和指标得到完整和及时的更新，这在经济衰退期间是更频繁需要的。有关现金流、运营费用、资本结构、供应链、销售业绩和劳动力的情报使您和您的团队能够协作，并在正确的时间做出正确的决策。

您的规划技术应该使您能够根据业务的流动性，尽可能频繁地查看数据、获得见解并做出预测。您应该能够在需要时执行场景分析。你应该能够立即生成管理报告，并提交给高管和董事会，这样你就可以采取可行的步骤来实现业务成果。

您是否拥有正确的技术来做出更快、更明智的决策来推动您的业务目标?在经济衰退的环境中，你是否拥有合适的技术来保持敏捷?

正确的技术可以帮助确定不确定时期的赢家。一个计划可以在几周内实施，而不是几个月，它可以让你在正常和动荡时期无所畏惧地掌控你的业务。